The Fundamental Theorem of Favorability Analysis

By Chris Scully, VP of Research at CARMA International

In 1987, professional poker player David Sklansky published The Theory of Poker outlining his thoughts on the underlying theories and concepts for winning at all the variations of the card game. In this book, he unveiled the Fundamental Theorem of Poker.

Photo credit: Viri GSimply put, the theorem states that anytime you're playing poker and your opponents do something (such as bet, call, raise, or fold) that they wouldn't do if they knew all your cards, then you win money. Also, anytime you do something (again, such as bet, call, raise, or fold) that you wouldn't do if you knew all your opponents' cards, then you lose money.

Using this as an inspiration, I'd like to offer what I call the Fundamental Theorem of Favorability Analysis: Anytime a story says something about a company or organization that the entity would want the story to say, then that discussion is favorable. Anytime a story says something about a company or organization that the entity would not want the story to say, then that discussion is unfavorable.

For this theorem, I define "about the company or organization" broadly such that it includes discussion of that entity's products and services, organizational mission or goals, management, financial performance, standing as an employer or corporate citizen, etc.  I also use the word "story" broadly to incorporate new reports, opinion pieces, and all types of social media hits (blogs, tweets, Facebook status updates, etc.).  Lastly, I define "that discussion" as being the part of the story saying that certain something the entity would or would not like the story to say.  This discussion could be as brief as a word or two or as expansive as several paragraphs or more. 

Incorporating this theorem into a favorability assessment methodology is relatively easy to do when using human analysts. I think many people – even those outside the PR industry – already understand this concept intuitively, and it's easy to formalize it by establishing guidelines that enable coders to recognize instances when the theorem should be applied. 

In contrast, I think it's a pretty difficult task for automated offerings to incorporate the Fundamental Theorem of Favorability Analysis into their sentiment algorithms. Foremost, software doesn't have any intuition, which means that every specific sentiment rule that a software offering follows must be programmed. Also, the ways in which a story can convey information that invokes the Fundamental Theorem of Favorability Analysis is limitless, and thus, no programmers could ever devise software that accounts for all possible favorable and unfavorable discussions. 

I believe the practical impossibility of incorporating the Fundamental Theorem of Favorability Analysis into media analysis software is a main cause of The Neutral Problem that is so prevalent in automated offerings.  However, since many programmers of media analysis software don't come from a PR background, it's possible that some don't quite grasp how truly vital this theorem is to assessing media coverage accurately, and thus, they don't devote enough of their efforts to accounting for the theorem in their programming.

Regardless of the causes, I think it's clear that until automated offerings can incorporate the Fundamental Theorem of Favorability Analysis into their algorithms, human-based media analysis is always going to produce more accurate favorability assessments.

Key Things to Consider When Building Client Relationships

By Christopher Splet, Director

You’ve just won a new client! You’ve celebrated and popped the champagne, but now it’s time to get down to business. At the start of any client relationship it is extremely important that both sides begin by communicating their capabilities and expectations.

Whenever I land a new client at CARMA, here are the things I keep in mind: 

Photo Credit: Stuart Miles Never Make Assumptions: When starting a new media measurement project, I think it’s vital that both sides avoid making assumptions about what will be delivered. For example, while I may consider a certain reporting metric as standard, my client may use something entirely different and expect that in the final deliverable. By communicating in advance rather than making assumptions, we avoid headaches on both sides. 

Gauge Client Expectations: Rather than make assumptions, I always gauge my client’s expectations for the project. Questions like “What are your goals?” “What do you hope to achieve?” “How will you use this information?” can all provide insight into what the client will find valuable in a final deliverable. This is especially important here at CARMA because our reporting is so customizable. The numerous variables, data points, and pieces of information that can be gleaned from our research process create countless options of what can be included in a deliverable. Because of this, I strive to find out what will and will not be useful to the client. [Side note: It’s certainly appreciated when clients know exactly what they want and make it known from the start].

Manage Expectations:  Just as it’s important to encourage a client to communicate its expectations, I think it’s equally important for me to communicate effectively our capabilities of what can and can’t be done. This process really begins at the sales/proposal stage (fortunately CARMA’s sales team doesn’t regularly exclaim “oh sure, we can do that!” when the reality is somewhat different. Though, ensuring your sales staff is fully versed in your offerings will help avoid this uncomfortable situation). Even beyond the sales stage, I work to communicate any limitations to my clients to ensure they aren’t expecting something that can’t be done.

Avoiding assumptions, communicating, and managing expectations are just a few examples of what I think it takes to keep effective lines of communication open between you and your client. By doing so, you can avoid the disappointment and unmet needs that have sunk many client relationships in the past. 

Re-evaluating the ROPEs

By Jillian Baronoff, Analyst

The success or failure of a PR campaign often depends on a four-part process called ROPE: Research, Objectives, Programming, and Evaluation. 

• Research: Identify the opportunity, problem, or issue faced by an organization and its targeted audience. 
• Objectives: Establish specific and measurable actions that support an organization’s communications goals. 
• Programming: Plan and implement activities derived from an organization’s objectives. 
• Evaluation: Define outcomes, impact, and effectiveness of a PR Program.

While all parts of ROPE are vital, PR practitionerPhoto credit: stock.xchngs often make the critical mistake of overlooking the evaluation phase or solely quantifying PR outputs in terms of impressions and advertising value equivalency. Or, too often, the evaluation phase is thought about after the implementation phase is completed rather than at the beginning of the process. When PR evaluation methods are not discussed before the onset of a campaign and are not used during the campaign, organizations cannot effectively determine the impact of PR programs on objectives in real-time. This causes organizations to miss out on opportunities to adjust the campaign’s strategies and tactics, and, as a result, organizations are limited in how they can adapt to issues that arise during a PR campaign life cycle. 

To enable PR practitioners to react to unforeseen circumstances of a PR campaign, organizations must put in place procedures for ongoing evaluation during a campaign’s timeline. One such method that is often overlooked by PR professionals is content analysis. At CARMA, we use content analysis to measure PR outputs by determining whether the key issues and messages disseminated by PR practitioners receive media exposure. This process of ongoing conversation measurement allows PR teams to listen, adapt, and tailor messages to effectively meet communications objectives and goals. 

Although content analysis is underutilized in the PR industry, the results are undeniable. Public relations professionals can use this method to maximize the effect of communications programs and receive quality insight into their overall “media health.” As a result, organizations can gain an advantage in the communication space by anticipating road blocks throughout a PR campaign’s life cycle.

The Art of Not Getting Overwhelmed by Research and Analytics

By Katie Eickhoff, Analyst Photo by The Shopping Sherpa

The wealth of tools and subject matter can make the practice of measurement overwhelming. What kind of data you’re searching, what media outlets focus on, how to present your data - all of these are questions that affect analytics and make (or cripple) its successful implementation.

There are certainly ways to simplify data selections to not make it so overwhelming. Infographics are a popular example of disseminating data - especially if you use them as an overview of the more detailed data that you’ll also be presenting. They’re also easy to post in tweets and blogs to make you’re data less overwhelming to an audience.

Another way to simplify analysis for yourself is to wholeheartedly jump into the arena of data collection - how it’s done by different parties, how to recognize its value, and how to present what you find. One such jump off point is the site SearchResearch. Besides giving you inside tips on how to do Google searches (and how they’re done on YOU and your company), the site is a showcase for the variety of ways information can be presented and the value of tailoring the presentation of your data to your audience. All of this is done with examples, and the author even turns his examples of research collections into scavenger hunts for readers to analyze what they see in the data as they research.

PR is rooted in research and analysis and tailoring a particular campaign to an audience makes those practices vital. The better you can understand the fundamentals of research, the less overwhelming the data will be and the more likely measurement and analytics will be arts that you will master.