Predictive Modeling Used to Identify Coming Crises in Emerging Markets

Washington DC:  A briefing session held at the offices of The Brunswick Group and presented by global media analysis leader, CARMA, unveiled new research predicting possible new crises in key emerging markets.

The event was attended by a range of public policy, Capitol Hill legislative staff and representatives of NGO’s and other international organizations.

Using new techniques in measuring stakeholder groups, CARMA identified new sources of potential conflict and crisis in key emerging markets. This included analysis on potential crises in Africa where income inequality was driving public action towards significant socio-political change.

“We have a unique ability to hear the voices of millions of people who were not heard before,” explained Mazen Nahawi, CEO, CARMA. “By legally and openly listening to public forums and social media conversations, and correlating that information with traditional media, historical trends and cultural phenomenon, we can understand people and societies better than ever before and see crises emerging long before they happen.”

CARMA is pioneering integrated modeling for public affairs and has developed new approaches to modern stakeholder analysis with its focus on common and binding factors that cause “social tribes” to coalesce around an idea. By zeroing in on and studying changes in these elements, they can begin to see emerging issues—such as economic or political crises—and use that insight to inform strategic messaging and policy.

“Social tribes are not defined by their location, gender or income group,” explained Nahawi. “They coalescence among an idea, or shared interests in a specific issue. They come across all ethnic groups and surpass traditional understandings of demographics; these groups often have no flag nor a location – they often have no name. But, they come together quickly and forcefully around an issue and make an enormous impact on what they care about.”

To receive a copy of CARMA’s presentation, please contact Jen Phillips.